Predicting the Spatial Spread of Invasive Prosopis juliflora (SW.) D.C along Environmental Gradients in Gabel Elba National Park, Egypt [ ]

The predicting and spatial distribution of most invasive plants is poorly documented and studied. This study examined the spatial distribution of a successful invasive plant, Mesquite (Prosopis juliflora), in Wadi Merikwan in Gabel Elba National Park. The occurrence data of P. juliflora and five environmental variables; distance from the main road, elevation, soil moisture, soil pH, and light intensity were collected and measured from 107 random plots at the Wadi Merikwan. A spatial logistic regression analysis was developed to identify the factors that contribute most to the spread of this invasive plant. The spatial regression analysis indicated that elevation and distance from road were the only significant factors correlated with the spatial distribution and potential spread of P. juliflora (p < 0.05) at the Wadi Merikwan. In contrast, soil moisture, soil pH and light, intensity of each plot were all not significant factors in relation to the spatial distribution of invasive species at the Wadi Merikwan.